BearishGold🏛️ Central banks & policy
Gold falls toward $4,000 as September inflation rises to 3.6% and the economy grows at a 3.4% pace
Thursday morning's numbers: prices rose 0.5% in September alone, the biggest monthly jump in six months, taking the yearly rate to 3.6% from 3.4%. Third-quarter growth of 3.4% beat the 3.1% expected. Kitco puts the chance of a quarter-point Fed increase on December 8–9 at about 83%. The 10-year Treasury pays close to 5%.
Kitco AM Report ↗impact 9/10
BearishGold🏛️ Central banks & policy
Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00% on a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a hike right away
Wednesday's decision. The statement says the economy is "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation is still elevated, which Kitco reads as a pause, not a turn toward lower rates. Markets put about an 83% chance on a December increase. Higher rates make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive to hold.
Kitco PM Report ↗impact 8/10
BearishSilver📈 Market & price action
Silver drops 3% to about $52.32, its lowest since November 2025; down 13% on the month
Trading Economics ties the fall to the inflation and growth numbers and to the roughly 80% chance markets now give a December Fed hike. Silver pays no interest, so higher rates weigh on it. Still about 7% higher than a year ago.
Trading Economics ↗impact 8/10
BearishGold📈 Market & price action
Gold slips to about $4,021, down 1.1% on the day and 3.3% on the month; now about even with a year ago
Trading Economics says investors are weighing data showing persistent inflation and solid growth, which raised expectations of a rate increase later this year. Its table shows gold down 0.08% from a year earlier, after a run that took it near $5,600 at the peak.
Trading Economics ↗impact 7/10
BearishPlatinum📈 Market & price action
Platinum falls 3.4% to about $1,487, down 13.5% on the month and 7% over the past year
Trading Economics cites money leaving platinum funds and a weaker demand outlook, with car-industry use expected to fall 4% this year. The World Platinum Investment Council now expects a 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026, meaning more metal than buyers.
Trading Economics ↗impact 6/10
BearishGold💰 Investment & ETFs
The biggest gold fund lost 14 tonnes last week, about $2.1 billion; holdings are down 2.5% this year
SPDR Gold Shares held 1,043 tonnes as of Wednesday, down from above 1,060 in early October. Money is leaving as the price falls. The silver fund went the other way: iShares Silver Trust added 56 tonnes on the week, though it is still down 5.5% this year.
Goldreporter ↗impact 6/10
BearishGold💰 Investment & ETFs
Sucden Financial: gold could test $3,900 and silver $50–53 before the December Fed meeting
The firm's quarterly report blames oil above $110 feeding inflation, high Treasury yields and a firm dollar. It expects both metals to steady in early 2027, with gold back to $4,200–4,300 and silver $57–60 by mid-January, once the Fed nears the end of its increases.
Kitco / Sucden ↗impact 6/10
BullishGold🏛️ Central banks & policy
China's central bank added 23 tonnes in September, 103 tonnes so far this year, a 23-month buying streak
Sucden calls official buying "the clearest fundamental floor" under the price, and counts 289 tonnes of central bank purchases in the second quarter. Gold fund holdings hit a record 101.55 million ounces in mid-October. Neither, the firm says, is likely to offset a Fed that keeps raising rates.
Kitco / Sucden ↗impact 6/10
BearishPalladium📈 Market & price action
Palladium slips under $1,000, to about $997; down 18% on the month and a third over the past year
Trading Economics points to steady money leaving palladium funds, weak long-term demand and carmakers switching to platinum in catalytic converters. Hybrid car demand and recycling have softened the fall but not stopped it.
Trading Economics ↗impact 5/10
BearishGold🏛️ Central banks & policy
Jobless claims 194,000, a sixth straight week under 200,000, the longest run since January 2023
Forecasters expected 198,000. Kitco says a healthy job market "gives the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates in December." Gold was holding just above $4,024 as the numbers came out, down 1% on the day.
Kitco ↗impact 5/10
BearishGold⛏️ Mining & production
Alamos Gold falls 8% after missing profit estimates; Kinross down 5% as Toronto's materials stocks drop 2.4%
Reuters says disappointing quarterly results from gold producers added to pressure from the falling gold price. Alamos sold gold at $4,258 an ounce last quarter but its all-in cost rose to $1,956 from $1,375 a year earlier, and a key mine shaft is delayed to mid-2027.
Reuters / Investing.com ↗impact 5/10
NeutralGold🌍 Geopolitical & macro
Oil eases to about $114 after reports that Vice President Vance wrote to Iran to revive peace talks
Brent fell from Wednesday's $115.32 close. Trump played the letter down, saying it concerned medical supplies. The Wall Street Journal also reports Washington warned Gulf states to prepare for a possible renewed campaign against Iran after the November 3 elections. Cheaper oil eases the inflation pressure on gold; a wider war would cut the other way.
The National ↗impact 5/10
NeutralGold🏛️ Central banks & policy
European Central Bank holds its deposit rate at 2.50%, says rising energy prices are an "upside risk" to inflation
No change in Europe, but the same worry as in Washington: the energy shock is bigger and longer than expected and is likely to push inflation up and growth down. The ECB says it is "not pre-committing to a particular rate path."
ECB ↗impact 4/10
BearishPlatinum⚖️ Supply & demand
Shanghai platinum and palladium futures down about 4% on the week; Chinese buyers already stocked up and are pulling back
SMM's weekly review says most users bought earlier and are now buying only what they need. China's platinum imports in September were down 31% from a year earlier, palladium imports down 54%. New York platinum touched $1,491.70 on Monday.
Shanghai Metals Market ↗impact 4/10
BullishSilver⚖️ Supply & demand
Silver headed for a sixth straight yearly shortfall, about 46 million ounces, even with solar demand down 19%
Sucden, citing the Silver Institute, expects industrial use to fall 3% this year to 639.6 million ounces as solar makers switch to copper. The world still uses more silver than it mines. Silver-backed funds hold about 805.8 million ounces after selling this year.
Kitco / Sucden ↗impact 4/10
NeutralGold⛏️ Mining & production
Alamos Gold sold gold at $4,258 an ounce last quarter, up from $3,359 a year ago, but free cash flow fell to $75.6 million
Production of 119,000 ounces was in line with plan. The company keeps its full-year targets but pushes the Island Gold shaft to mid-2027 and expects lower mining rates there in early 2027. Mining at these prices is still very profitable; the question in coverage is rising costs.
Alamos / GlobeNewswire ↗impact 3/10